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Why Syria could get even uglier

Editor’s note: David W. Lesch is professor of Middle East History at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas, and author or editor of 12 books, including the upcoming “Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad.” The views expressed are solely those of the author.

The past couple of weeks haven’t been good to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. First, his long-time friend and presumed regime insider, General Manaf Tlas, defected. This was followed soon after by the defection of the Syrian ambassador to Iraq. In the past week it has been reported that a number of high-ranking Syrian military officers defected to the Syrian opposition, perhaps taking their cue from Tlas. Finally, on July 18, a massive bomb exploded in a national security compound in Damascus, killing an unspecified number of Syrian security personnel, including the defense minister and the deputy defense minister, the latter being Assaf Shawkat, Assad’s brother-in-law.

These were certainly serious body blows to the regime. Taken in and of themselves they aren’t necessarily fatal blows to the regime, especially since Tlas’ and reportedly even Shawkat’s access to the inner sanctums of the decision making apparatus weren’t what they once were. Nonetheless, oftentimes perception is more important than reality. And the perception is that two long-time stalwarts of the regime, one (Tlas) from a family that more than any other has been associated over the decades with propping up the Assads, both father and son, and the other (Shawkat) a relative to al-Assad by marriage who had been the head of military intelligence in Syria and for years the most feared person in the country, are now gone. Because of this, it appears that the regime might be on the verge of imploding. The fact that the bomb apparently was planted inside a high security complex that played host to a national security meeting had to send shockwaves throughout the regime. How can anyone feel safe at this point? Are there moles in the inner sanctums of the regime that planted the bomb? In other words, a regime that was already paranoid about pernicious unseen forces arrayed against it just became that much more unsure of who its friends and enemies are.

There’s also the perception that the opposition armed forces are getting better at striking at the heart of the regime. It’s clear that their shift in tactics from trying to take and hold parts of cities, which failed miserably against superior government forces – so dramatically revealed in Homs earlier in the year – toward adopting guerrilla warfare has been much more effective at wearing down government forces and striking devastating psychological blows at the regime. The tactical support, arms, funding, and training opposition forces are receiving directly and indirectly from an array of anti-Assad countries appear to have finally paid some dividends.

Al-Assad could claim for a long time during the uprising that the violence was relegated to the rural areas and select cities; the two largest cities, Aleppo and Damascus, were relatively safe and secure. This is no longer the case. As a result, many of those Syrian fence-sitters, who supported the regime not because of any predilection for al-Assad but for the lack of any viable alternative, may now think twice about whether or not to stick it out with the regime. With the perception that there is no place to go, that the regime is on the defensive and that the opposition is making important military inroads, high-level Syrian officials may think hard about defecting, following the path set out by Tlas and others. If this is the case, as often happens, what follows is a cascade of defections that undermines the foundation of a regime.

The question now is how the Syrian regime will react to the bombing. Will al-Assad see the end of the tunnel for his regime and more vigorously pursue a diplomatic resolution that leads to a transition of power, although he would do so from a perceived position of weakness? Or will he – and his military-security advisors – lash out in a violent fashion to show that he’s still powerful, in control, and capable of withstanding the heat? If recent history is a guide, he will unfortunately choose the latter option. If this is the case, the regime’s attempts thus far at calibrated bloodletting, i.e. enough of a crackdown to suppress the rebellion but not enough to galvanize the international community into action, may be difficult. Certainly there will be those in the regime, maybe even loyalists of Shawkat in the security services, who figure the gloves are off. They may find evidence as to who carried out the assassinations, where their home villages are, and then take to wiping them out. Vengeance in the Middle East is often gruesome and convulsive. In an election year, the United States will most likely continue to wade along the sidelines regardless; besides, it likes what it sees in terms of the perceived weakening of a regime that may be on its last legs, so why change course.

Welcome to the next ugly phase of the Syrian uprising, where violence becomes more indiscriminate than it already has been. Both sides believe it is an existential conflict. And if this is the tipping point for the al-Assad regime, what will it do to desperately hang on? Then there’s still a whole other set of questions regarding what will follow after al-Assad falls – and he will fall. The serious fault lines that divide the opposition might ultimately make the post-Assad environment equally rich in blood, at least until one party wins and imposes its vision for Syria’s future. One can only hope that the last reeds of a relatively peaceful transition are grasped through diplomacy, compelling the Russians – Vladimir Putin – to realize that they’ve wedded themselves to a sinking ship and have one last opportunity to leverage their influence toward a resolution of the problem with rather than against the international community. Perhaps a fanciful wish at this point, but the alternative is more of what we have just witnessed.

He can afford it, she can't: Couple's health care dilemma

Editor's note: Embed America is a partnership between CNN Radio and CNN iReport. This series tells the story of the 2012 U.S. presidential election through the people most critical to the campaigns: the voters. CNN Radio is traveling across the country to interview iReporters on election issues close to their hearts. These issues were named important by iReporters during phase 1 of the iReport Debate.

Mayflower, Arkansas (CNN) -- Janet Copeland and her husband, Richard, both say they agree almost all the time, with one exception: The Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama's health care legislation.

"We're kind of split on that one," Janet says. "It's one of the few heated discussions we have. Right now, I'm at the point where I've already told (Richard) that 'OK, if the person you want gets elected, sit back and watch.' We're in a little standoff about that one. There's never blood drawn, but it gets interesting."

Richard Copeland, a 62-year-old retired Army veteran, just rolls his eyes.

"I did not like the way it was shoved down our throats," Richard responds. "What about the people that can't afford health insurance? What part of not being able to afford it doesn't our president understand? There are people out there working just to put bread on the table, and now he's saying 'I don't care if your family eats or not.' "

Richard's wife is having a hard time paying her health insurance.

According to Families USA, a liberal-leaning health insurance advocacy group, Janet Copeland's situation is common. Families USA reported that before the passage of the ACA, some 2.3 million American families lost their health care each year because of price. The group believes the ACA will help families from being priced out of health insurance coverage.

He says it's unfair to penalize his wife if she decides not to pay for coverage. He supports GOP candidate Mitt Romney. And Richard has health insurance through the Veterans Administration. But Janet, who is quickly using up her life savings to pay her monthly health premium, is fully supportive of Obamacare, and supports Democratic President Barack Obama in his re-election bid.

But in ironic fashion, the reason this debate has come to the Copeland household is because the couple decided to get married.

Watch behind the scenes interview with Janet Copeland

After getting married, the couple moved into a ranch style home on the banks of Lake Conway, just north of Little Rock. But before they started a life together, Janet Copeland was married for almost 50 years. The Arkansas native married her ex-husband at age 15. Janet raised two children, maintained the house, and painted portraits and landscapes on the side.

"I held one job during my marriage, working as an art instructor," Janet says. "It wasn't for very long, and it wasn't for many hours per week."

After a long, unhappy marriage, Janet got divorced in her mid-60s. During the separation, Janet learned she did not work enough during her life to qualify for Social Security or reduced cost Medicare. So, she negotiated with her ex-husband, and he agreed to give her a small lump sum of money, along with subsidizing her health care premiums. While she was single, Janet Copeland paid just over $200 per month.

"Then I got married, and the whole thing changed," Janet says.

Now, she pays $703 per month. When she remarried, Janet's ex-husband no longer paid any part of her health premium. She couldn't qualify for Medicaid, the government's health care program for the poor, because she had to count Richard's retirement income of about $2000 per month. So, Janet had to turn to her life savings.

"What I do is I've got it set up where I get $1,000 a month, it's like a trust, to pay my insurance and everything else," Janet says. "It won't last me for a lifetime, I think, but right now, my insurance is taken care of."

Read Janet Copeland's original story on CNN iReport

What's important about Janet Copeland's story, says Anthony Wright, is that it illustrates how routine life changes can dramatically change individual health care costs. Wright is the executive director of Health Access, a California-based nonpartisan, not-for-profit think tank.

"A family's health insurance rate can change for a variety of reasons, both a birth in the family, a death in the family, a divorce," says Wright. "Even somebody just doing the very natural thing of reaching (their) birthday. One of the worst birthday presents you can receive is a rate increase from your health insurer."

The presidential candidates each offer dramatically different policies on how to handle rate changes. In the most general terms, Wright says, Obama's signature health care law makes it harder to increase rates for routine life changes, while GOP candidate Mitt Romney wants to repeal that law entirely.

"We've always had candidates with different proposals, but we've never had an election which would really determine whether a whole set of benefits and consumer protections were at stake, where the line was so clearly drawn," he adds.

How have you been affected by the health care ruling? Share your story with CNN iReport.

Wright says Janet Copeland could benefit from some of the provisions of the Affordable Health Care act, like the expansion of Medicaid. The health care program serves low income citizens, and is run jointly by the federal government and the states.

Yet, it's unclear how those provisions will be applied in the Copeland's home state of Arkansas. Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe will ultimately have to approve any expansion of Medicaid and Medicare in his state. Those are the provisions most likely to help Janet Copeland lower her Medicare premiums. Yet, the Democratic governor has issued statements indicating he is still studying the law and the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling.

iReport Debate: Face-off on Supreme Court ruling

Many Arkansas Republicans have taken the position of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. The former GOP presidential candidate has long argued that Obamacare provisions, like expanding Medicaid, will bankrupt individual states.

Perry, like Richard Copeland, also disagrees with the health care law on philosophical grounds.

"I will not be party to socializing health care and bankrupting my state in direct contradiction to our Constitution and our founding principles of limited government," Perry said in a statement shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling.

Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled Obamacare is constitutional, Anthony Wright of Health Access says the outcome of this presidential election will determine whether the law is ultimately fully enforced. From a health care perspective, Wright says this election is "the most important" in U.S. history.

Yet, despite the potential importance this election may have on their day-to-day lives, Janet and Richard Copeland may decide, as a couple, simply not to vote.

"We'll just end up canceling each other out," Janet says. "But if we do decide to skip the vote, at least we're doing it together. Life is better with someone you love."

See all of the Embed America coverage here. And track the Embed team's progress on our map.